000 AXNT20 KNHC 120549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 32W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOW THE WAVE IN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 26W- 32W AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 30W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W/CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N46W TO 7N53W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOW THE WAVE IN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 7N52W TO 12N46W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 14N42W TO 18N34W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 10N- 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOW THE WAVE IN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE SURGE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 10N18W 8N24W TO 9N30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND NAPLES ALONG 24N86W TO 24N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE W GULF WITH A 1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NE YUCATAN MON NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF TUE EVENING REACHING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 27N90W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 27N97W BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO 22N86W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W. A SECOND NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 13N75W WEDGING A UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWERS UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 67W-79W AND S OF 17N W OF 77W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA BETWEEN 68W-74W. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TUE EVENING. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE MON AFTERNOON LIMITING SHOWERS THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N80W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W ALONG 30N75W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 77W-79W. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N74W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N81W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND ALL OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 29N61W TO 26N72W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH AND PAIR OF 1019 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 26N54W AND 28N35W. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SE REACHING FROM NEAR 32N72W TO FORT LAUDERDALE BY EARLY TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS TUE AFTERNOON REACHING FROM NEAR 32N78W TO NE FLORIDA EARLY ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW