000 AXNT20 KNHC 110545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N39W TO 21N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 31W- 42W AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING A MOISTURE MAXIMUM STRETCHING FROM 20N27W SW TO 08N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N78W TO 21N77W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 73W- 81W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE AXIS. MOVING BENEATH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S-SW OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N74W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N- 13N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 07N24W TO 11N32W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N41W TO 11N61W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 19W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 41W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MOST OF MEXICO AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING W-SW TO OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO 25N94W. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE...THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE REMAINS DRY AS WELL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF 24N97W. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY ROTATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA USHERING IN A MILDER AIRMASS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHERLY IN THE RANGE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE PROVIDING A STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN RIDGING OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WHILE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAIN TRANQUIL THIS EVENING...THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-84W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W. FARTHER EAST...WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N74W...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM 18N74W TO 11N63W. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-75W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S-SW OF THE ISLAND IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS BY MONDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W-SW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. HOWEVER TROUGHING DOES DIP SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION N OF 26N W OF 70W. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SUPPORT A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N79W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 28N70W TO 30N77W SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 66W-79W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE AREA OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AS WELL WITH HIGHER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND RETREATING SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER EXPANSIVE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1020 MB HIGHS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 30N38W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 26N54W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN