000 AXNT20 KNHC 102348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH A TILTED AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N27W TO 12N36W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE SURGE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 22W-42W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N76W TO 10N77W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. A BROAD 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH IS DEPICTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 09N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N42W TO 09N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N AND E OF 28W...AND FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 42W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. EXTENDING A RIDGE S ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. ALOFT...THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 33N81W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS N FLORIDA ENTERING THE E GULF NEAR 30N84W TO 28N89W TO 28N95W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WHILE A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-83W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-77W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF THE ISLAND COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W AWAY FROM THE ISLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN. WITH THESE...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO 31N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED W OF 69W SUPPORTED THESE SURFACE FEATURES AND BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER S CAROLINA. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM 22N65W TO 29N59W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 25N54W AND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 29N40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. ACROSS THE FAR E PORTION OF THE BASIN...A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 25N27W TO 31N12W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA