000 AXNT20 KNHC 101805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH TILTED AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N27W TO 11N35W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 22W-33W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W S OF 20N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW COINCIDE WITH THE WAVE LOCATION. CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THE LOW ALOFT CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 66W AND 70W...INCLUDING EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 07N21W TO 11N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N38W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N48W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 08N59W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N E OF 23W AND FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 18W- 28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. EXTENDING A RIDGE SSW ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF. ALOFT...THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE SE CONUS...CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 34N81W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ENTERING THE BASIN NEAR 30N84W TO 28N90W TO 28N95W. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS AND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED S OF TEXAS GENERATE DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NW AND N- CENTRAL GULF THAT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF A LINE FROM 19N96W TO 26N85W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE GULF...GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER BY EARLY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NW YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E TO OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING TO FAVOR FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N W OF 78W. OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER NE CENTRAL AMERICA THAT ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE REGION SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA. IN THE SW BASIN...A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 9N77W CONNECTED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ALONG 75W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALSO INFLUENCES SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF THE ISLAND COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AS A RESULT. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS BY MONDAY... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ESE CONUS THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING E-SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 28N78W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 30N63W TO 28N67W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 29N76W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE TAIL OF THE FRONT...N OF 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC SATURDAY. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ALOFT AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N62W TO 21N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N44W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N13W SW TO 26N21W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TROUGH TO 24N34W. 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