000 AXNT20 KNHC 101044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N32W TO 20N27W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY SHARP 700 MB TROUGH AXIS WITH THE TROUGHING INFLUENCING THE WATERS BETWEEN 26W-34W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N28W SW TO NEAR 10N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 28W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N73W TO 19N71W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 67W-76W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE AXIS. MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N73W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 66W-72W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 07N19W TO 11N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N32W TO 09N40W TO 06N55W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 14W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL GULF NEAR 22N90W AND IS PROVIDING A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN. TO THE NORTH...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE E- SE AND SUPPORT STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY N OF 27N. IN ADDITION...THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM THE CAROLINAS SW TO COASTAL TEXAS. AS THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE GULF...GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER BY EARLY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N73W INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. WEST OF 73W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. EAST OF 73W...RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 72W IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-72W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG TSTMS IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-84W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 09N/10N. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF THE ISLAND COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND SATURDAY AS A RESULT. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS BY MONDAY... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING E-SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING IS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA THAT SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 28N70W AND INTO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 75W-79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING EAST OF THE NW BAHAMAS IN THE VICINITY OF 27N75W. THE WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 1012 MB LOW NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N61W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N69W TO 28N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N69W TO 30N56W. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N48W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N13W SW TO 26N30W THAT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO 22N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN