000 AXNT20 KNHC 081730 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N28W TO 06N31W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A TILTED 700 MB TROUGH AS INDICATED IN GFS STREAMLINES. SSMI TPW INDICATES HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT S OF 13N IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N58W TO 05N58W...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 51W AND 61W. MUCH OF THIS WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER S AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N63W TO 10N65W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS DEPICTED WELL IN 700 MB GFS STREAMLINES WITH TROUGHING INDICATED BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. MODERATE MOISTURE IS S OF 16N AND HIGH MOISTURE IS N OF 16N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 11N28W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF THE EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 09N32W TO 06N52W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN E OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF BASIN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N91W TO 19N93W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS S FL NEAR 26N81W TO 23N85W. NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N85W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO HISPANIOLA TO VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N83W TO 11N83W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THESE WAVES ARE SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SPREADING GRADUALLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE WAVES PROPAGATE WESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNDER SHALLOW MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE TONIGHT AND HAITI LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 73W FROM OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC US TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO 29N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO S FL NEAR 26N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N60W TO 21N62W AND IS A NORTHERN EXTENSION OF WAVE ENERGY FROM A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 27W BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N47W...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N32W TO 28N35W AND IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A N CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 60W/61W WILL MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THE S OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO