000 AXNT20 KNHC 080558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... JOAQUIN HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN AT 08/0300 UTC IS NEAR 42.0N 37.0W...OR ABOUT 520 NM...TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. JOAQUIN IS MOVING EASTWARD...OR 080 DEGREES...30 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT JOAQUIN ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT JOAQUIN ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 42N TO 43N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 40N TO 50N BETWEEN 18W AND 35W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N23W 11N26W 05N28W... MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS . A TILTED 700 MB TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MODEL STREAMLINES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE PRECEDING THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. A LOW AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N53W 07N52W 04N51W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N60W 15N62W 10N62W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY SHARP 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 58W AND 64W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO 15N22W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 11N27W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 10N34W 09N40W 07N45W AND 07N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N25W 06N33W 04N42W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N23W 13N26W 12N29W 12N33W 12N36W 12N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 07N TO 11N FROM 19W EASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N92W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COASTS BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE IS THE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N78W...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W AND 24N89W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT HISPANIOLA...AND THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 20N60W 15N62W 10N62W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 26N73W 22N72W...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH HAITI...TO 16N74W...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 69W WESTWARD... IN AN AREA OF LARGELY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA TO 83W AT THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 09N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.24 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N60W 15N62W 10N62W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH CUTS THROUGH HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 68W AND 70W. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE LAST OBSERVATION AT 08/0100 UTC SHOWED SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER AND NOW-DISSIPATED RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER...ARE IN LA ROMANA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH HAITI FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BECOME CUT OFF...AND IT WILL STAY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 2-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND 24 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAHAMAS-TO- SOUTHEASTERN CUBA RIDGE...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INVERTED TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 26N73W 22N72W...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH HAITI...TO 16N74W...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 31N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N72W TO 27N78W...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W AND 24N89W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 65W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 26N54W 22N53W AND 18N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W ARE MORE RELATED TO THE 60W/62W TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N18W...THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N28W... 25N40W...THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N48W...TO 25N61W...24N70W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT