000 AXNT20 KNHC 071150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 40.5N 49.4W AT 07/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 400 NM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING ENE AT 28 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 40N-46N BETWEEN 38W-51W. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DECREASING COVERAGE AS THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 10N47W TO 02N45W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 45W-55W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N53W TO 10N54W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-60W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 50W- 57W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 11N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N21W TO 04N44W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N47W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N- 14N BETWEEN 18W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 21N95W TO 26N81W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL US EXTENDS S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E-NE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PREVAILS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W- 83W WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. ANOTHER AREA TO NOTE IS OVER E CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHERE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 16N AND BETWEEN 77W- 80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BETWEEN 70W- 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ENHANCING CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 28N81W. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO 27N80W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE SE GULF. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWS AND TROUGHS MAINLY W OF 65W. TO THE E...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N57W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N30W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA