000 AXNT20 KNHC 070548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 40.0N 53.1W AT 07/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 400 NM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING ENE AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 38N-45N BETWEEN 48W-56W. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DECREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 10N43W TO 02N40W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N53W TO 10N53W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-57W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 49W- 55W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 07N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N25W TO 05N40W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N44W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N- 13N BETWEEN 24W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N83W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N93W TO THE LOW THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 23N. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL US EXTENDS S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E-NE BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PREVAILS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W- 83W WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. ANOTHER AREA TO NOTE IS OVER E CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 16N AND BETWEEN 74W- 79W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BETWEEN 70W- 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ENHANCING CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 27N80W THEN CONNECTS TO ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE E GULF. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND TROUGH MAINLY W OF 67W. TO THE E... UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 50W- 61W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N56W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 26N34W. TO THE N OF THESE FEATURES...A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 32N32W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA