000 AXNT20 KNHC 061750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 38.3N 59.6W AT 06/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 580 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-42N BETWEEN 55W-64W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N37W TO 09N42W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SHORTWAVE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 38W- 43W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N50W TO 21N48W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 46W-53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO 06N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N31W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 15W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N92W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABILITY ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOWER PRESSURE VALUES EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION SUPPORT A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARIES...ONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE WESTWARD TO 27N89W AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS FROM 25N84W TO 23N90W. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS EXTENDS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND MEXICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E-NE BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PREVAILS. TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE NOTED HOWEVER AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 64W WITHIN FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 49W THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE OTHER EXCEPTION IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE LARGELY IN PART TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE E OF 80W WITH THE STRONG WINDS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF 80W IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT INCREASING WINDS INTO THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 68W-78W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 33N74W THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 32N75W WITH A PARTIAL DISSIPATING OCCLUSION AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N68W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N56W...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 20N65W AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NE IN THE VICINITY OF 25N57W IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 55W-64W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N47W AND EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE E-NE TO 32N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 30W-46W. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN