000 AXNT20 KNHC 060532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 36.8N 62.7W AT 06/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 290 NM N OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 35N-40N BETWEEN 57W-67W. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE LATEST FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N37W TO 07N36W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SHORTWAVE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 35W AND 40W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE S OF 10N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N45W TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N47W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 41W-51W. A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 45W-48W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 07N36W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 32W...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-14N AND E OF 21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 23N94W EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 85W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N78W EXTENDS W REACHING THE FAR E PORTION OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF TROUGHS EXTEND FROM A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FIRST IS LOCATED FROM 28N89W TO 29N81W. S OF THIS TROUGH...A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N90W TO 26N80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N84W TO 24N79W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING N OF 24N WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW IS S OF 24N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W. AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WAS NOTICED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N80W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA EXCEPT NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. MODERATE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N78W. AN OCCLUDED 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N78W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW FROM 30N75W TO 26N78W TO 23N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUES MOVING NE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 24N57W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N32W. IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS...A PERSISTENT 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N48W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 24N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 44W-49W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND A SURFACE LOW ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA