000 AXNT20 KNHC 051146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 34.6N 64.6W AT 05/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 140 NM N OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 32N- 37N BETWEEN 61W-67W. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE LATEST FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N39W TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N43W. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-46W AND IT IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 41W-46W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 07N26W TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N43W TO 11N46W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 11N56W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N AND E 0F 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 25W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 24N95W...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N80W EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM 24N91W TO 26N81W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM 22N94W TO 22N87W TO 24N80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE E GULF. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IS APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA CENTERED NEAR 17N85W. TO THE E...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N82W TO 19N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-77W AFFECTING E JAMAICA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-73W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N80W TO A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N80W. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N81W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-31N AND W OF 75W. TO THE E...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 52W-64W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N52W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 28N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 49W-53W. A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ARE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 22N50W AND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N33W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS THE FEATURES PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED OVER THAT AREA PREVAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA