000 AXNT20 KNHC 050532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 33.1N 65.5W AT 05/0300 UTC OR 60 NM NW OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N- 35N BETWEEN 64W-67W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 30N-37W BETWEEN 56W-71W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE LATEST FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N38W TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N42W. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 36W-46W AND IT IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 06N28W TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N42W TO 10N49W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 09N56W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N AND E 0F 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 47W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 23N96W...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM 27N92W TO 27N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM 23N94W TO 22N86W TO 24N79W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NW WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE E GULF. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN TRANSITION INTO A TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IS APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N83W TO 20N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-77W AFFECTING E JAMAICA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-73W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO A 1001 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N81W. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N81W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-31N AND W OF 77W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N74W TO 29N61W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOS IS CENTERED NEAR 27N52W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N54W TO 26N50W TO 26N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 48W-54W. A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ARE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 20N53W AND A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N32W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA