000 AXNT20 KNHC 041156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W AT 04/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 182 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 18 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 25N- 35N BETWEEN 60W-73W. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N34W TO 07N32W...MOVING W AT 05-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 28W-35W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N38W TO 09N37W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 32W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 36W-43W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO 19N23W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N34W TO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N36W TO 10N44W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS AND BETWEEN 19W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. TO THE NE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA EXTENDS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISRUPTION OF TRADE WIND FLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM NEAR 17N85W TO 18N80W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. TO THE E...A DIFFLUENT FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 17N AND E OF 70W AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE S TO SW WINDS ARE S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW AS THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN IS BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. AT THIS TIME...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AFFECTING ALSO THE NW PORTION OF THE ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE W OF THE ISLAND WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SUPPORTING CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE JOAQUIN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC...W OF JOAQUIN...FROM A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N79W. THE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 31N77W TO 27N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM NE OF THE BOUNDARY. E OF JOAQUIN...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N57W TO THE LOW THEN TO 25N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE LOW CENTER. A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 19N55W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDING FROM 21N39W TO 31N18W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND A SURFACE LOW ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN WILL EXIT OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH DECREASING INFLUENCES ON THE SW ATLANTIC. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA