000 AXNT20 KNHC 030604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N 73.7W AT 03/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 65 NM NE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MOVING NE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF JOAQUIN REACHES THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND AND NE CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA...WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1004 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N52W OR ABOUT 738 NM ESE OF BERMUDA PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE DISPLACED WELL TO THE E OF THE LOW CENTER. EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HINDERED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A MEDIUM CHANCE EXISTS FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TILTED AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N33W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 09N30W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 700 MB THAT ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE WAVE REGION SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 11N16W TO 10N25W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 09N30W TO 07N39W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 18W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN IN THE SW N ATLC COVERS THE BASIN AND PROVIDE N-NW WIND FLOW OF 15- 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF...THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND NE U.S. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THESE LAST TWO DAYS...DRY STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR COVERS THE BASIN WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. LOW PRESSURE AND SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE JOAQUIN TAKES A NNE TRACK IN THE ATLC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS THAN 15 KT BY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE SW N ATLC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND THE NE CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA...WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN TERMS OF WIND...SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. W-NW WIND FLOW OF 15 KT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE S-SE WIND FLOW OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 19N W OF 84W. IN THE SW BASIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 13N W OF 72W. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE S AND SE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOOKING AHEAD...AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN TRACKS NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN IN THE SW N ATLC ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. IN TERMS OF WIND...SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN TRACKS NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE SW N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS A 1004 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N52W OR ABOUT 738 NM ESE OF BERMUDA THAT IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE DISPLACED WELL TO THE E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A MEDIUM CHANCE EXISTS FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. NW OF JOAQUIN...THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N79W TO 27N78W THAT ENHANCES SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N W OF 78W. OVER THE NE AND CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N26W TO 26N34W TO 26N45W SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS FARTHER E IN THE ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR