000 AXNT20 KNHC 030002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 24.3N 74.3W AT 03/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 22 NM NNE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 70W-77W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W AND CURRENTLY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. LYING WITHIN A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 45W-52W. THE SYSTEM IS GENERATING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...A MEDIUM CHANCE EXISTS OF THE LOW DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N32W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 25W-35W AND A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY. THE WAVE IS ALSO IN A MOIST AREA AS DEPICTED FROM SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 11N15W TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 9N19W TO A 1009 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N28W TO 8N39W.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 14W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 18W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 10-20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE VERY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF E OF 87W AND N OF 29N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR 32N87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... 20-30 KT W TO SW SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN N OF JAMAICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. 10-20 KT W TO SW TO S WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...A TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE NORMAL TRADEWIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF 66W...OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS ...AND VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA... PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS ...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO DECREASE AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES N. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. AGAIN EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE ISLAND TO DECREASE AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC IS HURRICANE JOAQUIN. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. A 1002 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N29W TO 26N40W TO 26N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. THIS UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA ARE HEAVILY INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA