000 AXNT20 KNHC 021154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 74.8W AT 02/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 25 NM NNE OF CLARENCE LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 40 NM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 70W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 70W-83W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N53W. THIS CURRENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TO OBTAIN SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL N OF OF THE LOW BETWEEN 50W AND 60W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 47W AND 66W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N29W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 700 MB THAT ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE WAVE REGION SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. FORMER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS NOW BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH. A SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH IT NEAR 14N39W THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB...SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION CONTINUE TO HINDER CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N27W TO 09N39W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 07N TO 14N E OF 19W. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERNMOST TROPICAL WAVE. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ILLINOIS TO ALABAMA S-SW TO A BASE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 25N81W TO 22N87W TO 19N93W. EXCEPT FOR THE SSE GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THAT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 84W. LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO START DISSIPATING OVER THE SE GULF TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN IN THE SW N ATLC WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AND MARINE WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST OF BOTH ISLANDS. TSTMS ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN HAITI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED W OF JAMAICA FROM 17N TO 21N E OF 83W. JOAQUIN ALSO HAS DISRUPTED THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...SHOWING TO BE VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 15 KT S OF 17N W OF 70W. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KT IS NOTED ALONG CUBA SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 20N W OF 85W. IN THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE S AND E CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND S OF 14N E OF 71W. LOOKING AHEAD...AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN TRACKS NORTHWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN EXTEND ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A MARINE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF HISPANIOLA AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN REMAINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES NORTHWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N53W. THIS CURRENT NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF THE LOW CENTER BETWEEN 50W AND 60W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. NW OF JOAQUIN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N79W TO A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 27N79W WHERE THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N W OF 78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N26W TO 27N42W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR