000 AXNT20 KNHC 020605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 74.6W AT 02/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 19 NM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS MOVING W AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 73W-76W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-81W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N54W WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N64W INTO THE LOW CENTER THEN TO 26N47W. THIS CURRENT NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TOP OBTAIN MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES NE AND THEN N. GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN TERMS OF INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 21N TO 29N BETWEEN 44W AND 65W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N28W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N26W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 700 MB THAT ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE WAVE REGION SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 43W... MOVING W AT 5 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB. HOWEVER...SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHERE METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THE WAVE REGION INFLUENCES LACK OF CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N26W TO 12N33W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 06N TO 14N E OF 18W. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERNMOST TRPCL WAVE. SEE TRPCL WAVES SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ILLINOIS TO ALABAMA S-SW TO A BASE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 27N80W TO 26N82W TO 23N90W TO THE SW GULF NEAR 20N94W. EXCEPT FOR THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THAT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 84W. LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO START DISSIPATING OVER THE SE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN IN THE SW N ATLC WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AND MARINE WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST OF BOTH ISLANDS. TSTMS ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN HAITI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. JOAQUIN ALSO HAS DISRUPTED THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...SHOWING TO BE VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 15 KT S OF 16N W OF 70W. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KT IS NOTED ALONG CUBA SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE WEST- SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 16N...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES BEING INFLUENCED EITHER BY DRY AIR OR STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. LOOKING AHEAD...AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN TRACKS NORTHWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN EXTEND ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A MARINE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF HISPANIOLA AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN REMAINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES NORTHWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N54W WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N64W INTO THE LOW CENTER THEN TO 26N47W. THIS CURRENT NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF THE LOW CENTER BETWEEN 50W AND 60W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. NW OF JOAQUIN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N79W TO A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 27N80W WHERE THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS N OF 29N W OF 79W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N27W TO 27N37W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR