000 AXNT20 KNHC 020001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 74.4W AT 01/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 65 NM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MOVING SW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 71W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 71W-85W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N56W WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N65W INTO THE LOW CENTER THEN TO 27N48W. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N58W TO A BASE NEAR 22N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 21N- 30N BETWEEN 48W-65W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS DEPICTED GALE FORCE WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST N OF THE LOW CENTER PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 50W-60W. A HIGH CHANCE EXISTS OF THE LOW DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N28W INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N26W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 20W- 33W AND TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. WITH THIS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-20N BETWEEN 22W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N37W TO 11N44W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INVERTED V PATTERN BETWEEN 30W-45W SUPPORTING THE WAVE LOCATION. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MANLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS. DESPITE THIS FACT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 10N30W TO 12N37W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ALONG 26W...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A RELATIVELY SHARP MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 20N91W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N93W TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AREA NEAR 29N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE S...A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N90W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N92W TO 24N88W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 24N BETWEEN 88W-91W. LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PROVIDING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH N-NW WINDS THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED OVER THE SW ATLANTIC JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 17N. HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AND MARINE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST OF BOTH ISLANDS. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN EAST ...THE NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW HAS BEEN DISRUPTED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY E OF 75W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL W OF 75W. ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N87W TO 21N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS N OF PANAMA MAINLY S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AHEAD...AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN TRACKS NORTHWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...THE OUTER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BANDS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN EXTEND ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A MARINE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF HISPANIOLA AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN REMAINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES NORTHWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC IS HURRICANE JOAQUIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N81W TO 35N74W THEN N ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC. S OF THE FRONT...A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N80W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 31N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES. TO THE E...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N55W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N47W TO 30N29W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA