000 AXNT20 KNHC 301727 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... JOAQUIN BECAME A HURRICANE THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 72.6W AS OF 30/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...MOVING WSW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 68W-77W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW...REMNANTS OF IDA...CENTERED NEAR 25N57W AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N62W TO 24N52W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 50W-65W. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N22W TO 12N24W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. AN INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTICED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH MID TO UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE WAVE REGION SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-18N AND E OF 31W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N36W TO 11N40W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. THE INVERTED V PATTERN IS ALSO NOTICED WITH THIS WAVE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...DRY AIR INTRUSION IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE CLOSE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF 12N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO 10N47W. FOR CONVECTION INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SW TO A BASE OVER NE MEXICO AND AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT THE SURFACE...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 26N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N85W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 22N92W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 82W-86W. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY INTRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER-LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE ONLY AREA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS THE S-CENTRAL PORTION...WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-82W. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER HISPANIOLA SUPPORTED BY THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN CURRENTLY IN THE SW ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL PORTION. ...HISPANIOLA... THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN SUPPORT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JOAQUIN MOVES WSW TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS BEFORE TAKING A NORTHWARD TURN ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS HURRICANE JOAQUIN...PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. TO THE E OF JOAQUIN...A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF IDA...IS TRYING TO BECOME ORGANIZED ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 25N48W TO 23N43W TO 28N31W...THEN BECOMING A COLD FRONT TO 31N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1017 SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N13W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA