000 AXNT20 KNHC 290602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN. AT 0300 UTC ITS CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 70.4W OR ABOUT 348 NM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 68W-71W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 66W-73W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOUTHERLY INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N83W IS GENERATING A SWATH OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE E-SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONG WIND FIELD GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 85W. GALE FORCE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY 0600 UTC TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH TILTED AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N17W SW TO A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N21W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED MAINLY IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N21W TO 11N30W TO 09N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N41W TO 05N53W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11W BETWEEN 28W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE W-SW BASIN WHERE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED. ALOFT...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTEND FROM ARKANSAS SW TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND INFLUENCE A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. WITH NO SUPPORT ALOFT...A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO A 1007 MB LOW OVER THE NE BASIN NEAR 29N86W. SOUTHEAST OF THIS LOW CENTER...A 1009 MB LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUPPORT NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. ASIDE THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE EPAC ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MARTY ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW BASIN. EXCEPT FOR THE E GULF E OF 85W...WINDS ARE 15 KT OR LESS AND VARIABLE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEARLY COLLOCATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO MOVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE EASTERN GULF LOW ACCELERATES NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ACROSS FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 84W. MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE SW BASIN AND THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 10N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER HISPANIOLA BEING INFLUENCED BY TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN LOCATED IN THE SW N ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE INFORMATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N62W. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN IN THE SW N ATLC IS BEING ADVECTED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CEASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE STORM MOVES W-NW OVER ATLC WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE ATLC IS RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSED IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N77W. TO THE ESE OF JOAQUIN...A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF IDA. THE CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 23N53W FROM WHICH A TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 18N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N33W TO 27N50W TO 27N60W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR