000 AXNT20 KNHC 281151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 68.9W AT 28/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 365 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING W AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N70W TO 27N67W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N41W TO 10N37W MOVING W-SW 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N36W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. SEE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 13N21W 12N33W THEN THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N36W TO 9N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE LOW FROM 10N-11N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 20W-30W AND FROM 5N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-12N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N96W COVERS THE GULF W OF 89W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES INTO THE GULF THROUGH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 28N94W TO 25N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO OVER SW LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS BETWEEN 92W-96W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA NEAR 22N84 THEN INTO THE W ATLC OVER MIAMI FLORIDA COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 89W. A 1007 MB LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 24N88W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE YUCATAN TO 20N88W. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NE OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N83W ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N85W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES N FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEREFORE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF COAST... FLORIDA..AND THE SE CONUS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN DRIFT E ON WED. THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N THIS MORNING THEN N- NE THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N84W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN THE W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST E GUADELOUPE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 83W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE EACH NIGHT OFF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA THROUGH TUE. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM S TO N THROUGH TUE. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE ATLC COAST THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND MIAMI FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N76W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS JUST TO THE E OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 34W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THE ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N35W TO 28N50W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 29N58W TO BEYOND 32N66W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 58W-63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 48W AND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 63W-67W. A UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 27N48W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST E OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 17N59W THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED UNDER THIS UPPER TROUGH IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N47W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF IDA...NEAR 24N50W TO 18N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 54W-57W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 22N E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N30W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NW THROUGH TUE THEN TURN N-NW LATE WED AS IT MOVES N OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW/ERA