000 AXNT20 KNHC 280545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN AREA OF INTEREST IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND BERMUDA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N 68.7W AT 28/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 350 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N69W TO 28N65W AND WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 22N65W TO 26N94W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A WELL DEFINED 1007 MB LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE YUCATAN TO 21N88W. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NE OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N85W OVER CUBA TO 22N84W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N E OF 87W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES N FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF COAST... FLORIDA..AND THE SE CONUS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N41W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N36W MOVING W-SW 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 30W-40W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W ALONG 12N20W 12N30W THEN THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N36W TO 9N41W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-21W...FROM 5N- 9N BETWEEN 26W-33W...AND FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 36W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-12N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N96W COVERS THE GULF W OF 88W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES INTO THE GULF THROUGH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 28N94W TO 26N91W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO OVER SW LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS BETWEEN 92W-95W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA NEAR 22N82W THEN INTO THE W ATLC OVER MIAMI FLORIDA COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH AND 1007 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS BELOW THIS UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 89W TO OVER THE SE CONUS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 94W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N94W ALONG 24N91W TO 27N89W. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN SHIFT S ON WED. THE LOW N OF THE YUCATAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N TONIGHT THEN N-NE MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N82W INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST E GUADELOUPE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PULSING EACH NIGHT OFF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA. THE LOW N OF THE YUCATAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N BUT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MON. ...HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE ISLAND HAVE DISSIPATED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE ATLC COAST THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND MIAMI FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N77W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS JUST TO THE E OF UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 37W-52W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THE ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N38W TO 31N40W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N53W TO BEYOND 32N66W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 54W-66W. A UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N50W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST E OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 17N59W THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N44W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF IDA...NEAR 24N49W ALONG 21N50W TO 18N55W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 30N37W TO 27N41W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 47W- 54W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 29N30W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WILL CONTINUE NW TONIGHT AND MON THEN TURN N-NW AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN BEGINS TO SHIFT N OUT OF THE AREA LATE TUE THROUGH LATE WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW