000 AXNT20 KNHC 271744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N 48.4W AT 27/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 920 NM E-NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 45W-54W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF INTEREST IS AT ABOUT 370 NM SSW OF BERMUDA WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NW BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N39W TO 05N39W...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED FROM 04N-11N AND E OF 41W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 12N32W TO 08N38W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N42W AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N- 14N BETWEEN 21W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH A DEVELOPING CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO AND EXTENDING E ACROSS THE NW GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N93W WITH SURFACE LOW EXTENDING FROM 25N94W TO 29N94W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW MAINLY N OF 26N AND W OF 89W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA W OF 87W. TO THE S...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N88W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WHILE A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS S OF 26N. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW THROUGH BEFORE DISSIPATING WHILE THE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY THEN N-NE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS E OF 70W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 80W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSING EACH NIGHT OFF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. LESS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT DAYTIME HEATING COULD GENERATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE ATLC COAST THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N79W TO BEYOND 32N79W COVERING THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A CUTOFF UPPER-LOW IS JUST TO THE E NEAR 25N66W AND IS SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. T.D. IDA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE ALSO DISCUSSED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE. TO THE S...A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W COVERING THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 23N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLANTIC E OF 42W ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 37N17W. LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT FOR THE 1010 MB LOW E OF BAHAMAS TO MOVE SLOWLY NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE NE BY MIDWEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA