000 AXNT20 KNHC 270548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.3N 47.4W AT 27/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 950 NM E-NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 44W-47W AND FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 48W-50W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF INTEREST IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND BERMUDA WHERE AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N69W IS SUPPORTING A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 26N69W. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N68W ALONG 26N67W TO 27N69W. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES N-NW TO NW BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N32W TO 10N35W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WHILE THE N PORTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N25W TO 12N36W WHICH IS THE RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA ALONG 9N17W 11N28W TO 7N39W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 12N-17N AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 25W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TO NE MEXICO COVERING THE GULF W OF 89W. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FORM 23N90W TO OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ALL SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1009 MB LOW NEAR 25N92W TO A 1009 MB OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 91W-97W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N ALONG 80W COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 87W. THIS IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N85W TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N88W. THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 25N92W WILL DISSIPATE LATER SUN AS THE 1009 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN MOVES N INTO THE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-87W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ALONG 80W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PULSING EACH NIGHT OFF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE ALONG THE NE COAST. LESS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUN BUT DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND ALONG THE ATLC COAST THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W TO BEYOND 32N COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 73W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS JUST TO THE E AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N56W ALONG 27N60W TO 30N67W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N30W. THE 1011 WILL MOVE SLOWLY N-NW OR NW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE NE BY MIDWEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW