000 AXNT20 KNHC 260548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 45.5W AT 26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1025 NM E-NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING N-NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 42W-45W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 5N-13N MOVING W 5-10 KT OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE/DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W ALONG 12N24W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N30W/ THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N33W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N39W TO 7N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 11N E OF 10W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 5N24W TO 6N27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT AND CREATING A MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N87W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY W INTO THE W/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN WITH A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH SUN THEN MOVE N THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N79W TO 17N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 77W TO OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE OFF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA AT NIGHT THROUGH MON. ...HISPANIOLA... THE EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LEAVING THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LESS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR SAT AND SUN BY DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND THE ATLC COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG 30N79W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W AND IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 25N- 30N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 72W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N74W TO 31N73W. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 28N69W AND EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 69W FROM 23N-29N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-30N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N31W. THE EASTERN MOST SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE SAT WHILE THE WESTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN THEN DRIFT NW ON MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW