000 AXNT20 KNHC 260002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 25/2100 UTC IS NEAR 22.5N 45.5W. IDA IS MOVING NW...OR 325 DEGREES...AT 5 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. IDA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR...AND DRY AIR ON ALL SIDES EXCEPT THE EAST. IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 42W-45W. SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. ALSO SEE THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 13N30W TO 4N31W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE SSMI COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 29W-32W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH TRAVERSES W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W THEN CONTINUES TO 8N29W. AN ITCZ IS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N32W TO 6N40W TO 8N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 5W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 24W- 28W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING NW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 30N97W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...SIMILAR MOIST UNSTABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... AS OF 2100 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI. EXPECT LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 30N78W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 24N78W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 29N68W TO 21N69W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 64W-70W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N31W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N67W ENHANCING CONVECTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W PRODUCING SHEAR OVER IDA. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 29N23W PRODUCING SHOWERS E OF THE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA