000 AXNT20 KNHC 251825 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 25/1500 UTC IS NEAR 22.1N 45.0W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE N...OR 355 DEGREES...AT 4 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 13N30W TO 03N30W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH IS INDICATED BY MODEL FIELDS BETWEEN 22N AND 32W. DEEP MOISTURE IS CONFINED S OF 13N IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W AND EXTENDS OVER ATLC WATERS TO 09N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N32W TO 08N45W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM NEAR 26N89W TO 21N92W. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 97W. THERMODYNAMIC INFLUENCES SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE THE MEXICO COAST FROM 18N TO 22N W OF 93W. MODERATE NE SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF N OF 27N. GENTLE E TO NE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TX IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AND INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF TO SUPPORT CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 85W ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. OVER THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL LIKELY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N85W TO 16N86W SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. THE DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN...WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W. DRIER AIR COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INHIBITING CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W...AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LOW NE OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE SW NORTHERN ATLC HAS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS JUST E OF THE ISLAND. FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFFSHORE OF GA/FL FROM 31N79W TO 25N80W SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N68W SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 71W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N32W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST NEAR THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO