000 AXNT20 KNHC 251111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 25/0300 UTC IS NEAR 21.7N 45.3W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335 DEGREES...3 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD. IT IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WAVE TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W TO 11N20W AND 09N28W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N31W 07N35W 08N41W 07N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN INLAND GEORGIA 33N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N83W...TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WATERS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 91W FROM 24N NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 24N97W 20N95W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAINSHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN FLORIDA LATER TODAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N76W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF CUBA...TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF JAMAICA...TO COSTA RICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W FROM 25N IN SOUTH FLORIDA BEYOND 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 73W AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N84W 16N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 78W WESTWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.95 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.01 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 73W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-COSTA RICA RIDGE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA... DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO ONE HOUR AGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-CUBA RIDGE...AND THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR DAY TWO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FLOW OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 73W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...AND FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N17W TO 31N24W...TO 30N29W 28N34W...TO A 26N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N45W NEAR T.D. IDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N15W 22N30W 18N40W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR T.D. IDA IS COVERED SEPARATELY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N19W TO 32N32W 32N50W 27N61W 27N75W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W...AND FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT