000 AXNT20 KNHC 250602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 25/0300 UTC IS NEAR 21.3N 45.3W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 330 DEGREES...4 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. IT IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST FOR THE WAVE IS TO DE- AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO 10N20W AND 10N26W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN INLAND GEORGIA 32N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N83W...TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N90W TO 28N86W TO 25N83W TO 23N88W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N83W 24N89W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 24N97W 20N94W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N76W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF CUBA...TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF JAMAICA...TO COSTA RICA. A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 73W AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N83W 18N85W 15N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.95 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.01 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 73W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-COSTA RICA RIDGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 85W/86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG IN WESTERN PANAMA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA... DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 71W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING REPORTED FOR THE LAST OBSERVATION AT 25/0200 UTC. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-CUBA RIDGE...AND THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR DAY TWO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FLOW OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 73W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 30N30W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N40W...TO 23N44W...TO 19N45W NEAR TROPICAL STORM IDA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 33N22W-TO-19N45W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W...AND FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 19W AND 20W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR T.D. IDA IS COVERED SEPARATELY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 36N30W TO 32N50W TO 29N61W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT