000 AXNT20 KNHC 241114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 24/0900 UTC IS NEAR 19.6N 45.5W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST...OR 90 DEGREES...5 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD. IT IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST FOR THE WAVE IS TO DE- AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N19W 15N23W 13N27W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND THE GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N23W 08N30W AND 07N37W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N19W 15N23W 13N27W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W...THROUGH 26N86W...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE WEST OF 30N85W 24N87W 19N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N91W 18N94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF 22N81W 16N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AND AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N IN COLOMBIA TO 11N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 85W/86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE THIRD PARAGRAPH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...WITH INFORMATION ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA... DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A HONDURAS-TO-CUBA-TO-FLORIDA RIDGE...AND THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 18 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. WEST-TO- SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST TIME...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WITH A 62W/63W RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N79W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 80W AND GEORGIA AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG COVERS THE WATERS AND ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND GREAT ABACO ISLAND. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 73W AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 73W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 30N30W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N40W...TO 23N44W...TO 19N45W NEAR TROPICAL STORM IDA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 33N22W-TO-19N45W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W...AND FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 19W AND 20W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR T.S. IDA IS COVERED SEPARATELY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 36N30W TO 32N50W TO 29N61W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT