000 AXNT20 KNHC 240602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 24/0300 UTC IS NEAR 19.9N 46.0W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST...OR 90 DEGREES...4 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A RADIUS OF 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N23W 13N25W 10N26W. IT IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST FOR THE WAVE IS TO DE- AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W...TO 13N20W 10N23W 08N30W AND 08N34W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W...THROUGH 26N86W...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE WEST OF 30N85W 24N87W 19N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N97W 21N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N78.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AND AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 85W/86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 09N74W AND 08N78W NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA... DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A HONDURAS-TO-CUBA-TO-FLORIDA RIDGE...AND THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 18 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. WEST-TO- SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST TIME...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WITH A 62W/63W RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N80W...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...A LITTLE BIT TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N20W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 31N08W TO 20N19W 18N28W 25N44W. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N66W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 33N BETWEEN 58W AND 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT