000 AXNT20 KNHC 230604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 23/0300 UTC IS NEAR 20.9N 46.8W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...OR 120 DEGREES...2 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A RADIUS OF 270 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST FOR THE WAVE IS TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THIS AREA IS MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W... THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N22W 08N27W AND 09N34W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF THE 22W/23W TROPICAL WAVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THIS AREA IS MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W...THROUGH 26N88W...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N86W 24N88W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE WEST OF 30N83W 24N87W 19N92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N81W IN CUBA TO CENTRAL BELIZE. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...THROUGH 17N76W TO 12N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N78W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER TO 29N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN BERMUDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 20N22W 20N35W 26N46W...AND BEYOND 32N54W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT