000 AXNT20 KNHC 221106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 22/0900 UTC IS NEAR 21.3N 48.6W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...OR 105 DEGREES...4 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A RADIUS OF 270 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N21W 13N23W 11N25W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND THE GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W 07N30W AND 07N40W. NO M ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N NORTHWARD...AND FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N110W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS MEXICO FROM 20N SOUTHWARD FROM 100W WESTWARD. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 19N82W 15N78W 11N73W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N79W 12N81W 16N84W... FROM THE PANAMA COASTAL WATERS TO EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N62W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...IN BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA 19N82W 15N78W 11N73W TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND JAMAICA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA/HAITI. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO 26N67W EVENTUALLY BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA...AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25N67W AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THIS SITUATION WILL NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N74W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W...TO NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N72W...TO 30N74W AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 270 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N62W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N54W 30N55W 34N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N22W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...AND FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 24N23W... 23N43W...AND BEYOND 32N52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT