000 AXNT20 KNHC 220601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR 21.7N 49.5W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 340 DEGREES...4 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A RADIUS OF 320 NM TO 420 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...JUST EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W TO 12N20W 08N30W 07N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N39W TO 08N43W 08N47W AND 11N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 05N10W TO 06N15W 06N18W 06N26W 08N31W 07N33W 08N38W 10N41W 09N45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE U.S.A. GULF COAST NEAR ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 28N93W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA...TO THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N86W TO 25N90W 24N93W BEYOND 30N94W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N108W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS MEXICO FROM 20N SOUTHWARD FROM 97W WESTWARD. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS INLAND BETWEEN 89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA AND 94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N79W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS WEAKENING WITH TIME. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 81W AND LAND. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N62W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...IN BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA 14N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI... INCLUDING ON L'ILE DE LA GONAVE. CURRENT CONDITIONS...RAINSHOWERS WERE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU- PRINCE IN HAITI AS OF THE LAST OBSERVATION AT 22/0000 UTC. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SOME OF THOSE AREAS WERE REPORTING FEW CUMULONIMBUS DURING THE LAST FEW EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. THE LAST OBSERVATION AT 22/0000 UTC IN BARAHONA CONSISTED OF FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA... WITH EARLIER OBSERVATIONS OF FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO 26N67W EVENTUALLY BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA...AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25N67W AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THIS SITUATION WILL NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N74W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W...TO NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N72W...TO 30N71W 27N74W...AND TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N62W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N53W 30N54W 33N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W...AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N23W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 27N30W 27N44W BEYOND 32N51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT