000 AXNT20 KNHC 181150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 45.7W AT 18/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 910 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING N-NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 42W-46W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1008 MB LOW W-SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS CENTERED NEAR 13N36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 28W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 30W-43W. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 18N TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W ALONG 13N19W TO 15N24W. THE ITCZ IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 7N-9N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. NINE AND THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS GEORGIA INTO THE GULF ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA ALONG 25N88W AND THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BEYOND 18N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH THEN INTO THE GULF AND BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND NAPLES TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 27N83W THEN S TO 22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 28N E OF 86W ACROSS FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR WITH CLEAR SKIES COVERS THE W GULF W OF 86W AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING S OVER THE W GULF WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH OVER SW LOUISIANA. SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SAT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PANAMA ALONG 16N81W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO TO S OF HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 68W-80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N78W. THIS IS LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH TODAY. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO TO S OF HISPANIOLA WILL FORM A CUTOFF UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING THEN WILL SHIFT S THROUGH SUN. MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W TO A 1009 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N79W THEN CONTINUES ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 25N73W 29N74W TO 30N79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 68W TO OVER NE FLORIDA/GEORGIA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W ALONG 26N75W TO BEYOND 32N70W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING NE COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 32N W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 40W-65W THEN EXTENDING A UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N60W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO INTO THE N CARIBBEAN. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N47W TO 29N55W SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 43W-51W AND FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 47W-59W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MOROCCO SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 30N10W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N14W TO 31N26W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 27N29W. THE W ATLC LOW WILL MOVE N-NE THROUGH SUN TRAILING THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS S FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW