000 AXNT20 KNHC 161809 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR NEAR 15.0N 43.1W AT 16/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 1055 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISPLACING CONVECTION EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 40W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 40W-50W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1010 MB LOW SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS CENTERED NEAR 11N28W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N28W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 6N28W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 26W-35W. RECENT ACTIVITY SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 71W FROM 9N-21N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 65W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 71W-77W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS ALONG 88W FROM 14N-23N MOVING NW A 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE W CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO ARE COVERED IN MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOSTLY NE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 80W-86WW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W AND EXTENDS TO THE 1010 MB LOW AT 11N28W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N38W TO 14N43W...AND FROM 13N45W TO 10N50W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 59W- 62W. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GRACE EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM 29N85W TO 24N87W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND EASTERN GULF E OF 88W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N98W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 77W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THEY MOVE W. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO SHIFT W TO HAITI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AND ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N55W TO 28N61W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N47W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 48W-51W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA