000 AXNT20 KNHC 161214 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 MB LOW MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS CENTERED NEAR 14N43W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 7N-17N MOVING W-NW 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 39W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 41W-48W. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 1011 MB LOW S-SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS CENTERED NEAR 10N27W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 7N-15N MOVING W- NW 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 25W-33W. THE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 68W FROM 11N-21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 64W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W FROM 14N-23N OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...W CARIBBEAN...AND N HONDURAS MOVING NW 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO ARE COVERED IN MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 83W-87WW...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 88W-90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W THROUGH THE 1011 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES TO 12N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SECOND WAVE NEAR 10N49W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 12W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 58W-62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS/TROPICAL WAVES IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO OVER THE N GULF BETWEEN 84W-94W. THIS IS CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN TO S FLORIDA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF GRACE...IS IN THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N86W TO 25N87W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF W FLORIDA FROM 23N- 27N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 93W. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF GRACE...WILL STALL ALONG 88W BY WED NIGHT THEN STRETCH FROM THE NE GULF INTO THE S/CENTRAL GULF BEGINNING FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 76W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO 70W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDING A UPPER TROUGH S ALONG 16N76W TO OVER W PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. THESE UPPER RIDGES ARE PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA FROM 76W-78W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA W OF 80W...W HONDURAS W OF 86W...AND GUATEMALA. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WED. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THE W CARIBBEAN THU. WEAKENED RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL DIMINISH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W ASSOCIATED WITH THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER LOW OVER HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL SHIFT NE WED AND OPEN INTO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FROM OVER PUERTO RICO ACROSS THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISHING THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS TO 30N AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA. A REMNANT DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO 29N80W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-32N W OF 77W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N61W TO 24N63W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N58W TO 25N67W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 51W-67W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N43W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 40W-49W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 55W AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N37W. W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW