000 AXNT20 KNHC 141049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N38W ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 17N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB MAINLY IN ITS W AND S ENVIRONMENT WHERE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 05N TO 10N E OF 25W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N37W TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N38W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THESE FEATURES ARE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...PLEASE REFER TO THIS SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 57W...MOVING W AT 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT IMAGERY AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 77W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IN ITS NORTHERN AND SW ENVIRONMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION HINDER CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N21W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N38W TO 09N50W. FOR CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURES SECTIONS. OTHERWISE...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN US AND FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N82W TO 25N90W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 21N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 83W AND 94W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW GULF. SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT MAINLY E WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT BASIN-WIDE WITH A MAXIMUM OF 20 KT IN THE SW GULF WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N92W TO 15N94W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START DISSIPATING TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH AXIS NEAR 77W. EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA OFFSHORE WATERS AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N W OF 80W. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES MONDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN US AND FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N74W TO 27N80W TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 28N75W TO NORTHERN CENTRAL CUBA. BOTH FEATURES SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW N ATLC W OF 73W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR