000 AXNT20 KNHC 100001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 30.6N 60.4W AT 09/2100 UTC OR 250 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING E-SE AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. T.D. EIGHT IS EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SW THUS THE CONVECTION IS TO THE NE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N55W TO 33N60W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N26W ALONG 15N28W TO 20N28W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 61W FROM 15N TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA W OF THE WAVE TO 64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 56W-65W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 17N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATED THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 10N35W TO 10N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF GRACE EXTENDS FROM 17N49W TO 13N51W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-16N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 12N W OF 13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W GULF CENTERED NEAR 25N91W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N OVER MOBILE ALABAMA AND S TO OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS WEDGE BETWEEN TWO STRONG UPPER RIDGES...ONE ANCHORED OVER W MEXICO AND THE SECOND OVER W CUBA. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF A VERY DIFFLUENCE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING MOST OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E ON THU ALLOWING A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AND IS ANCHORED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THU. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THU. ...HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM ACROSS W CUBA OVER THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N76W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 25N AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 69W-77W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N71W TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W THEN W OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N64W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 59W-70W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS NEAR 23N44W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 45W-52W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. T.D. EIGHT WILL CONTINUE N. WEAK W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER THROUGH THU NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW