000 AXNT20 KNHC 042349 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 22.6N 39.1W AT 04/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1112 NM SW OF THE AZORES...MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 36W-39W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N21W INTO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W AT 15 TO 20 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IT IS CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N28W INTO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N29W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY S OF 15N. ISOLATED CONVECTION MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 29W-31W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N53W TO 09N56W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 11N65W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS DEPICTED BY 700 MB MODEL FIELDS WITH A TROUGH BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE MOISTURE SURROUNDING THIS WAVE BUT AT THIS MOMENT NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W...THROUGH THE 1009 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N21W...THROUGH THE 1008 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N29W...TO 12N38W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 09N60W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO LOWS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 90W. TO THE SW...A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N96W TO 20N97W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N88W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS BETWEEN 78W-84W SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE S CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY S OF 17N. TO THE E...ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N67W. DRY AIR AND STRONG SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N76W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDING E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 78W. TO THE E...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW N OF OUR AREA EXTENDS ITS SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N63W TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 54W-64W. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N49W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 26N52W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 43W-47W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED AND A SPECIAL FEATURE LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...RESPECTIVELY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE LIKELY N OF 25N W OF 55W WITH THE TWO WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGHS AND THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA