000 AXNT20 KNHC 261733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 57.6W AT 26/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 245 NM ESE OF ANTIGUA...MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N36W TO 14N36W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS WELL NORTH OF THE WAVE TO NEAR 25N. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 34W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 10N23W TO 14N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY S TO THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO 25N90W TO 28N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 88W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE GULF. ONE EXTENDS FROM 22N93W TO 18N94W AND IS A WESTWARD MOVING DIURNAL TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 24N W OF 93W. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC TO S FL NEAR 26N80W TO 23N87W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE SE GULF. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT COVER THE NW GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF DANNY...EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N73W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N W OF 76W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IN DEEP MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... THE REMNANTS OF DANNY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THIS TROUGH SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY IN SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N75W TO S FL NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 30N65W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 22N71W TO HAITI. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF FL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO