000 AXNT20 KNHC 261018 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 56.0W AT 26/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 340 NM E OF ANTIGUA MOVING W 16 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 51W-61W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N33W TO 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N34W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS SURROUNDING THIS WAVE BETWEEN 28W-41W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 33W-38W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W INTO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 04N-16N BETWEEN 22W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE E CONUS TO OVER THE N GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE GULF FROM 30N84W TO 26N89W TO 29N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 23N. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 19N94W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAIL S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS S OF 27N AND E OF 83WW. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N78W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF DANNY...EXTENDS ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 20N69W TO 17N70W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS S OF 10N IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 12N AND PORTION S OF PANAMA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TO APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER E HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS A RESULT OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC...REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N77W TO 30N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AFFECTING THE W ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY N OF 25N AND W OF 77W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N55W AND A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N29W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ERIKA WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA