000 AXNT20 KNHC 260526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 54.4W AT 26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 430 NM E OF ANTIGUA MOVING W 16 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 50W-59W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N31W TO 14N32W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB INVERTED TROUGH AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 27W-35W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 12N25W TO 15N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 05N-17N BETWEEN 19W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE E CONUS TO OVER THE N GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE GULF FROM 30N84W TO 29N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 23N. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ARE MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAINLY S OF 21N. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE N GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N78W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF DANNY...EXTENDS ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 20N69W TO 16N69W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS S OF 11N IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PANAMA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TO APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER E HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS A RESULT OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC...REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N77W TO 32N70W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS N OF 27W BETWEEN 66W- 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N27W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ERIKA WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA