000 AXNT20 KNHC 251745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.0W MOVING W OR 280 DEGREES AT AROUND 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AND INTENSIFY WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30W BETWEEN 12N AND 22N WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 15N29W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AND LOW CENTER ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 27W-30W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDS E OF 40W FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 16N16W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N29W TO 13N40W. RANDOM ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 31W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N83.5W TO 27.5N91W THEN STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT NEAR 91W-92W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS 30N99W TO THE VERACRUZ COAST OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SW GULF FROM 19N-23N W OF 94W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THU THEN DRIFT NW AS A TROUGH THROUGH SAT. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE FROM DANNY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SE GULF AS A TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66-69W. MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR FRESH WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH AS WHAT IS LEFT OF DANNY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO PUERTO RICO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH MAINLY PERIPHERAL EFFECTS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND WILL DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DANNY EXIT PUERTO RICO AND MOVE INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TONIGHT AND WED MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 60W AND REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE FROM THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 26N64W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROUGH LINGERING FROM 24N79W NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 31N69W IS TRIGGERING A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE STUBBORN TROUGH FROM THE BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE WITH FEWER SHOWERS THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL