000 AXNT20 KNHC 251029 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOCATED NEAR 14N49W. ERIKA IS MOVING W AT AROUND 17 KT AND IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A WNW TRAJECTORY WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N29W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 16N28W TO 13N26W. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AND LOW CENTER ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 25W-29W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N28W TO 12N39W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 29W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 24N97W COVERING THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 95W WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN S OF 25N. TO THE N...A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N92W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS GULF STATES COASTLINE FROM 30N94W TO 30N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 27N...BETWEEN 87W-93W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT S AND STALL ALONG THE N GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CUBA AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 82W. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N72W EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE A WEAK 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N66W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N- 21 N BETWEEN 64W-67W AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SE PUERTO RICO. BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE REMNANTS OF DANNY TO DISSIPATE WHILE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. IN 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE REMNANTS OF DANNY CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SE PUERTO RICO TO MOVE S OF THE ISLAND WHILE WEAKENING THEN DISSIPATE. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W COVERING THE AREA W OF 66W AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N77W TO 29N67W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. AN AREA OF UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 60W-64W. TO THE NE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 39W-42W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA