000 AXNT20 KNHC 242355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AS A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N45W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 44W-48W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 13N48W TO 14N52W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W 20-25 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 26W-27W FROM 14N-20N MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 24W-27W INCLUDING THE W CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N16W ALONG 17N19W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N23W TO 15N31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 27W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO COVERING THE W GULF WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS COVERING THE E GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26W BETWEEN 90W-96W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER S FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E CONUS OVER THE N GULF. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF ON TUE AND WHERE IT WILL STALL AND MEANDER THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS ANCHORED OVER S GUATEMALA. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N72W EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG 15N80W THEN NW TO 20N85W. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY IS A WEAK 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF COZUMEL. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY WILL PASS S OF PUERTO RICO TUE AND S OF HISPANIOLA TUE NIGHT AND WED. A 1003 MB LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...HISPANIOLA... SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF PUERTO RICO TUE THEN S OF HISPANIOLA TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND TUE EVENING SPREADING W ON WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W COVERING THE AREA W OF 68W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 28N66W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N74W TO 32N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W-79W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N52W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM OF 27N BETWEEN 47W-50W. MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATE BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH ABOUT 550 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES. A 1003 MB LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW