000 AXNT20 KNHC 241024 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 60.5W AS OF 24/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 85 NM E OF DOMINICA AND ABOUT 100 NM E-SE OF GUADELOUPE MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 58W-62W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N41W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY W NEAR 20 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 24W FROM 11N-17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE AREA E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. LATEST VISIBLE/IR IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W-28W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N22W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N25W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 14N41W TO 13N47W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW...NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N97W COVERING THE AREA W OF 90W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLANTIC COVERS THE EASTERN HALF. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 24N- 26W BETWEEN 85W-94W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINLY E OF 83W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 28N91W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE WEAKENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS TO BE THE TROPICAL STORM DANNY WHICH CONTINUES MOVING W APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY AIRMASS COVERING THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT N OF 18N AND W OF 74W WHERE MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST AIRMASS PREVAILS. WITH THIS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS SW HAITI AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF CUBA. TO THE S...THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ACROSS PANAMA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 10N. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15 BETWEEN 72W-80W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR DANNY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES W ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER SW HAITI AT THIS TIME. EXPECT FOR MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NOW TROPICAL STORM DANNY ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN AND APPROACHES THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS MOVING W APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG 39W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THESE FEATURES. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 25N73W TO 30N63W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N48W TO 31N42W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N38W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT DANNY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE WEAKENING TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA