000 AXNT20 KNHC 231751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 58.1W AT 23/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 190 NM ESE OF ANTIGUA MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 14N35W IS MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. THIS LOW IS ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA THIS MORNING AS PER THE 1200 UTC SENEGAL SOUNDING CROSS SECTION. THE WAVE HAS AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N17W TO 09N17W. SSMI TPW INDICATES DEEP MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 21W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W...THROUGH A 1009 MB SPECIAL FEATURES LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N35W TO 13N40W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N37W TO 07N45W TO 08N53W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS W ACROSS THE NE GULF. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 94W. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N94W TO 18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N89W IS A SW EXTENSION OF A LARGER SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. N WINDS AROUND 10 KT COVER THE NE GULF. E TO SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. A DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL LIKELY BRING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE N OF 17N OVER THE CARIBBEAN. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS AND CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND VIRGIN ISLANDS AS TROPICAL STORM DANNY APPROACHES THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N77W OVER THE W ATLC WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N65W. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N62W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N71W TO 24N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM SE OF THE TROUGH W OF 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND 130 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 66W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N45W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. TROPICAL STORM DANNY AND A 1009 MB LOW ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC NEAR THE UPPER LOWS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO