000 AXNT20 KNHC 230556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 55.3W AT 23/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 380 NM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N31W TO 17N30W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N31W. THE GYRE AND ASSOCIATED WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 28W-34W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 16N85W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS NOTED BENEATH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 14N82W. AS A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W INTO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N31W TO 12N36W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 13W-26W... AND FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 43W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N78W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 21N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF FOCUSED NEAR 25N90W STRETCHING S-SW TO 22N92W...WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 81W-83W. LIGHT AND VARIABLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF DUE TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N89W...WITH MODERATE S-SE RETURN FLOW NOTED ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N83W...WHILE A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N69W. BOTH FEATURES REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W S OF 15N W OF 81W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA... AND NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM DANNY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT FROM LINGERING EARLIER EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CLEAR SKIES LIE TO THE EAST...HOWEVER SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN TROPICAL STORM DANNY APPROACHES FROM THE E-SE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N78W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE EAST NEAR 31N65W. GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT W OF 70W...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR 28N74W SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. E OF 70W...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N68W AND A SURFACE TROUGH CURLED INTO THE LOW FROM 26N70W TO 27N65W TO 32N61W TO 35N65W INTO THE LOW ITSELF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 60W-68W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N47W THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 42W-50W. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN